I’ve made the comment off and on for several months now on several blogs that- from a political perspective- the greatest thing that could have happened to the Republican party was Barak Hussein Obama. No other figure could have provided the public reaction that he has, and no other figure could have provided the singular focus of rehabilitation. The GOP was suppose to be wandering in the desert for a generation, yet just two years later, they look to take control of one, or both, houses of Congress.
My liberal friends will call this hyperbole, that Obama is simply facing the hardships that George W. Bush brought on and that once things recover, then he’ll get what is properly due: the admiration of the American people. Reality shows us, however, that Obama is indeed getting his due now, and that this administration, unlike wine, isn’t going to get better with time.
But how do we measure this and how do we distinguish which is accurate? Polls of course.
First, let’s set the stage with where the beginning was, and to do this, we need to look at two polls: the Generic Ballot and Obama’s approval numbers.
Gallop 1/24-26/’09 65/15 Approve/Disapprove
Zogby 1/22-26/’09 52/29 Approve/Disapprove
Rasmussen 1/22-24/’09 60/36 Approve/Disapprove
Diageo-Hotline 1/21-23/’09 68/12 Approve/Disapprove
Rasmussen 1/26-2/1 ‘09 38/42 GOP/Dem (Dem +4)
Diageo-Hotline 1/21-24 ’09 22/46 GOP/Dem (Dem +24)
Winston Group 12/29-30/’09 39/51 GOP/Dem (Dem +12)
Now, Conservatives have several gripes against Obama, but some of the big ones include: the Stimulus, Obamacare, the Arizona lawsuit, and his leadership. So, let’s look at how things have played out.
The Stimulus was passed and signed in February ’09. It got zero GOP votes in the House and three RINO’s in the Senate. Obama’s approval on the economy was 60% versus 34% disapproval. That dropped significantly by October when his approval/disapproval on the economy was statistically even at 48%. Today, his approval on the economy sits at 39% versus the 57% who disapprove- a 21 point plummet in the nation’s faith in his economic efforts.
We then got Obamacare in March of this year, which is arguably the most polarizing legislation we’ve seen passed in this nation for the last 40 some years. The publics views on this have been rather dramatic. When Obama came into office, approval/disapproval on healthcare stood at 50% versus 20%. By the end of ’09, approval/disapproval stood at 36% versus 61%- what a difference a summer makes. Currently, it is at 40% versus 56%, meaning that the political calculation that folks would “get over it” has been overwhelmingly incorrect.
Obama’s administration than proceeded to aim both barrels squarely at its own foot with the decision to sue Arizona over S.B. 1070.
NBC was astonished in May that 64% supported the Arizona law versus only 34% objecting to it. That hasn’t changed.
Amongst all of this, there has been the constant issue of Obama’s leadership, or the lack thereof.
Obama fails the test of leadership
Where’s Obama’s leadership on race?
Rupert Cornwell: ‘No Drama, Obama’ style of leadership is no match for this crisis
McCollum: Obama leadership ‘missing’ on oil spill
This brings us to today.
Rasmussen 8/27-29/10 46/52 Approve/Disapprove
Gallup 8/27-29/10 43/49
Newsweek 8/25-26/10 47/45
CBS 8/20-24/10 48/44
Gallup 8/23-29/10 51/41 GOP/Dem (GOP +10)
Rasmussen 8/23-29/10 45/39 (GOP +6)
Newsweek 8/25-26/10 45/45
Reuters/Ipsos 8/19-22/10 46/45 (GOP +1)
Time 8/16-17/10 43/37 (GOP +6)
AP/GFK 8/11-16/10 49/45 (GOP +4)
Who could have fathomed that in just 20 months, Obama’s approval would not only plummet, but his disapproval would skyrocket. As for the GOP, to have generic polls showing a +12 or even a +24 for the Dems and to see that today, the GOP is ahead +10 in Gallup and +6 in Time and Rasmussen. A 20-30 point swing between the parties.